US Morning Poly Mover
1,293 paper trades, lost $131.07, won 48% of them; the trades say it lost a little, evenly — no edge in the entry rule.
1,293paper trades closed
−$131.07net, paper
48%trades that won
$-0.101per trade (expected value)
edge too thinthe shape of the loss
What it tried — US Morning Poly Mover
Polymarket high-volume markets in the 25-75c band that show a recent volume spike during US morning hours (UTC 13-17, weekdays only). Captures news-driven flow right as US traders come online and discover overnight events. Combines time-of-day, day-of-week, AND volume-spike signals.
The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill):
- day_of_week_in
- [0, 1, 2, 3, 4]
- hour_of_day_max
- 17
- hour_of_day_min
- 13
- 24h volume at least
- 10000
- vol_spike_ratio_min
- 1.3
- over the last (min)
- 60
- YES ask at most
- 0.75
- YES ask at least
- 0.25
What its own trades say — US Morning Poly Mover
Loss concentrates in entry price 0.4-0.6 — 622 of 1293 trades at $-0.482/trade vs $-0.101 overall.
Average entry price 0.495; an average win paid $5.23, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2-0.4 | 336 | 36% | $212.67 | $0.633 |
| 0.4-0.6 | 622 | 44% | −$299.56 | $-0.482 |
| 0.6-0.8 | 335 | 66% | −$44.18 | $-0.132 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry price 0.4-0.6 | 622 | −$299.56 | $-0.482 | $-236.98 |
| hour (UTC) 15 | 196 | −$73.06 | $-0.373 | $-53.31 |
| hour (UTC) 13 | 404 | −$56.35 | $-0.139 | $-15.35 |
| entry price 0.6-0.8 | 335 | −$44.18 | $-0.132 | $-10.38 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev | YES | 0.34 | −$5.00 |
| Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe | YES | 0.29 | −$5.00 |
| Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong | YES | 0.44 | −$5.00 |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz | YES | 0.44 | −$5.00 |
| Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St | YES | 0.56 | −$5.00 |
Every version — US Morning Poly Mover
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | active | 2026-05-23 | initial version (backfilled) |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.